Thursday, May 22, 2014

Zane Pollard: The Bureaucrat Sitting on Your Doctor's Shoulder - WSJ.com

Zane Pollard: The Bureaucrat Sitting on Your Doctor's Shoulder - WSJ.com

The Bureaucrat Sitting on Your Doctor's Shoulder

The bond of trust between patient and physician has always been the essential ingredient in medicine, assuring that the patient receives individual attention and the best possible medical care. Yet often lost in the seemingly endless debate over the Affordable Care Act is how the health-care bureaucracy, with its rigid procedures and regulations, undermines trust and degrades care. In my pediatric ophthalmology practice, I have experienced firsthand how government limits a doctor's options and threatens the traditional doctor-patient bond.

I recently operated on a child with strabismus (crossed eyes). This child was covered by Medicaid. I was required to obtain surgical pre-authorization using a Current Procedural Terminology, or CPT, 2475.TW +1.12% code for medical identification and billing purposes. The CPT code identified the particular procedure to be performed. Medicaid approved my surgical plan, and the surgery was scheduled.

During the surgery, I discovered the need to change my plan to accommodate findings resulting from a previous surgery by another physician. Armed with new information, I chose to operate on different muscles from the ones noted on the pre-approved plan. The revised surgery was successful, and the patient obtained straight eyes.

However, because I filed for payment using the different CPT code for the surgery I actually performed, Medicaid was not willing to adjust its protocol. The government denied all payment. Ironically, the code-listed payment for the procedure I ultimately performed was an amount 40% less than the amount approved for the initially authorized surgery. For over a year, I challenged Medicaid about its decision to deny payment. I wrote numerous letters and spoke to many Medicaid employees explaining the predicament. Eventually I gave up fighting what had obviously become a losing battle.

Every surgeon must have the option to modify and change a surgical plan according to actual anatomical findings that only become apparent during surgery. For example, if a general surgeon operates on a patient with a suspected acute appendicitis and finds that the patient is actually suffering from an ovarian cyst, that doctor must be free to change the plan and do what is best for the patient. The physician should not be denied payment simply because of a rigid government requirement to follow only the pre-approved plan.

We all expect that doctors will do what is best for us according to their best judgment. This is part of the oath that doctors take when they graduate from medical school. When the government interferes with the doctor's right to select the treatment course and perform a necessary procedure, the integrity of the entire health-delivery system is compromised.

This same rigidity affects the dispensing of medications. I recently had to contend with a pharmacist's unwillingness to go against Medicaid rules and dispense a prescription for an eye drop medication for my patient, a teenager with glaucoma. This disease, involving high intraocular pressure, threatens sight if it is not controlled by medication.

My patient's glaucoma had been well controlled by a particular eye drop dispensed in a bottle available only in one size containing a dosage that would last for two months. Medicaid regulations only allowed the pharmacy to fill a prescription for a one-month supply. Medicaid did not want to approve my prescription.

The pharmacist asked me if I would change the prescription to order another Medicaid-approved medication that would satisfy the one-month-only supply policy. I refused because my patient's ocular pressure was well controlled by the particular medicine I had requested. Her vision was preserved because of that drug's effectiveness. Only after numerous contentious calls with the pharmacist and Medicaid was I able to obtain the prescription. Why should a physician have to struggle with the government for the most effective care for a patient?

Another example involved a life-threatening situation. I examined a 14-month-old child with the symptoms of Horner's Syndrome, a condition that can be caused by a neuroblastoma (a malignant tumor). I ordered a CT scan of the neck and chest, as these are the two most common sites where this tumor appears. Medicaid approved a CT scan of the chest only. I spent several hours on the telephone pressuring my state's Medicaid officials before I received permission to have both the chest and neck scanned. The scan of the chest was negative, but the scan of the neck revealed a malignant tumor. A pediatric surgeon removed the tumor and the child is doing well.

Had I accepted Medicaid's protocol and only obtained a scan of the chest, that child might not be alive today. Is that battle with government bureaucracy one that you are comfortable having your doctor fight when your child's life is at stake?

People of means, as well as those who need substantial financial assistance, must be able to trust their doctors. When government sets up rigid protocols that control the surgical procedures a doctor may perform, that limit the medicines approved for treatment, and that deny a critical diagnostic scan that may save a patient's life, the bond of trust is broken.

Dr. Pollard, a pediatric ophthalmologist with 40 years of experience, is director of the James Hall Fellowship in Pediatric Ophthalmology at Scottish Rite Children's Medical Center in Atlanta.



Stuart Don Levy

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Restriction on Links Displayed on Google Searches

This is a very surprising ruling. It opens a can of worms. In the case of the plastic surgeon who was sued for malpractice don't the doctors prospective patients have the right to see information that is publicly available? Is it not a form of restriction of speech? Who resolves disputes over what should and should not be displayed? The internet is a tool. Restriction of search results is like trying to prevent people from being cut by the knives that they use.

Stuart Don Levy

Friday, May 2, 2014

How Equinix Is Productizing Flash Trading Computing Architecture - Forbes

How Equinix Is Productizing Flash Trading Computing Architecture - Forbes
High speed computer networks compete in advertising and in online trading of securities. 
http://www.forbes.com/sites/danwoods/2014/04/16/how-equinix-is-productizing-flash-trading-computing-architecture/?partner=yahootix

How Equinix Is Productizing Flash Trading Computing Architecture

In his new book, Flash Boys, Michael Lewis directs his gleeful analytic spotlight on flash trading. True to form, Lewis tells a heroic story, in this case about how a team from Royal Bank of Canada found a defense for fair play against a mysterious group of traders who seemed to be gaming the system.

But Lewis gives short shrift to one of the real stars of the story: the data center and the people who run it. The forces that the flash traders have taken advantage of are creating a new type of data center, one in which many companies seek to cluster together in one location so they can communicate faster. The phenomenon is called proximity co-location.

It is not just in finance that this is happening. The digital advertising industry in which massive amount of advertising dollars are spend through auctions that take milliseconds also has clusters of companies hosting together in one data center. So do companies who uses lots of cloud resources.

Lightning over Pentagon City in Arlington, Vir... Lightning over Pentagon City in Arlington, Virginia. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Equinix, the global data center and computing infrastructure supplier, is making a business out of productizing this architecture. So far, Equinix has become important hub for finance and advertising, providing companies with the ability to host their computers, connect with each other, and take advantage of other services depending on their need.

This seems like the beginning of a network effect. As Equinix accelerates the development of real time infrastructure in new industries that are seeking to imitate what happens in finance and advertising, it will become the default choice. It is time for business leaders who are waking up to the power of real time information to transform business processes to take a closer look at what is happening. Your industry may be the next to employ proximity co-location to support an innovation like flash trading or advertising exchanges.

Physics is the Law

One of the fascinating aspects of the tale Lewis tells is the role that the architecture of the data center and network plays in altering the speed of trading. A transaction that starts on a trading floor in mid-town Manhattan, may travel to Brooklyn, New Jersey, and many other destinations on its way to being delivered to an exchange.

While the virtual world of cyberspace is a set of beautiful abstractions, the implementation is a birds nest of hardware and network connections. Seemingly outmoded concepts like the physical distance matter a lot. Even with lots of high-speed connections and ultra high-powered computers, if you want really fast performance when two computers are going to talk to each other, they need to be physically near each other.

"Physics isn't just a good idea, it's the law!" said Mark Uhrmacher, founding CTO of ideeli, the pioneer in flash sales that required a hyper-scalable server infrastructure, who is currently a consultant specializing in fixing both architecture and technology leadership challenges.

The effects of this law are that many of the companies that engage in program trading and flash trading and advertising auctions attempt to locate their servers physically near the exchanges and the other companies they deal with. If you can shave milliseconds off of your response time, it can be a big deal.

"As long as there are marketplaces, like advertising exchanges, that have financial incentives to minimize latency these hubs will make sense," said Uhrmacher. "By reducing distances and switching points the same software/hardware will be able to perform better enabling more transactions and better business performance. In fact, I'm surprised someone isn't using these hubs for competitive differentiation in the IaaS/PaaS space against AWS."

Finance and Advertising are First

In the first two massive real time data processing infrastructures, program trading and advertising technology, Equinix has become the dominant hub for proximate co-location of the infrastructure, raising three interesting questions:

  • Why does proximity co-location matter for such infrastructure?
  • How long will it matter?
  • Does Equinix have an insurmountable lead for hosting future proximity co-location hubs as more industries adopt real time computing for high value business processes?

Why does Promixity Co-location Matter?

As John Battelle, search guru and opiner on technology, points out in his November article the creation of real time technology for delivering advertisements is one of the greatest achievements of the modern era. The broad story of the development of this infrastructure is fascinating and there are many victories that have been achieved including creation of:

  • A liquid market for on-line advertising inventory.
  • Online advertising auctions take place in less than 100 milliseconds and are conducted whilst the reader is waiting for her web or mobile page to load in her browser.
  • A incredibly effective data supply chain that combines usage data, demographics, and many other forms of data that is processed both in batch and real time to provide a huge amount of information for evaluating the value of a page view, and, importantly the fleeting value of the reader.
  • Massively scalable databases for accessing huge repositories in real time.
  • Advanced products such as re-targeting so that ads follow high value buyers around the web.

Proximity co-location is needed because once performance under 100 milliseconds is required, the system must be optimized from end to end. Google, Facebook, Amazon, Twitter, Netflix all have Byzantine distributed architectures that combine massive centralized data centers, distributed systems for processing, caching, highly optimized networks, into a massive systems that deliver high performance to users around the globe.

The proximity co-location hubs Equinix has created are a different animal from Google, Facebook and the others because they are open systems. Both ad tech and program trading follow the same pattern. There are many players who each are offering a service such as analytics, settlement/clearing, hosting, storage, compute, etc. that must be as fast as possible. Each player may provide a service that supplies or use services from another player and also must communicate at high speed with people requesting ads from all over the Internet. In addition, the services are sometimes competing with each other, and sometimes cooperation. Usually, a few big players are enforcing rules, usually informally, to make sure everyone gets along. For example, in the ad exhanges, Google has a lot to say about how things work but there is no strong governance framework like in the finance industry.



Stuart Don Levy

Attackers Use Microsoft Security Hole Against Energy, Defense, Finance Targets - NYTimes.com - NYTimes.com

Attackers Use Microsoft Security Hole Against Energy, Defense, Finance Targets - NYTimes.com - NYTimes.com
What is the obligation of software manufacturers to keep the software safe from hackers going forward... Microsoft Windows XP.
Who measures how bulletproof software is to hackers?
Which company has the lead in profiting from cybersecurity... Cisco, Intel, Microsoft, Symantec, Fireeye?
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/05/01/attackers-use-microsoft-security-hole-against-energy-defense-finance-targets/?ref=technology

Attackers Use Microsoft Security Hole Against Energy, Defense, Finance Targets

A security vulnerability that affected all versions of Microsoft's Internet Explorer browser took on added urgency because the company had stopped supporting its Windows XP operating system.A security vulnerability that affected all versions of Microsoft's Internet Explorer browser took on added urgency because the company had stopped supporting its Windows XP operating system.

SAN FRANCISCO — By the time Microsoft warned customers of a nasty security hole in its web browser Saturday, a sophisticated group of attackers were already using the vulnerability against defense and energy companies, according to FireEye, the security company.

Things went from bad to worse over the weekend. FireEye's researchers watched as the attackers shared their exploit with a separate attack group, which began using the vulnerability to target companies in the financial services industry, according to Darien Kindlund, the director of threat intelligence at FireEye.

Even after Microsoft issued its advisory on Saturday, Mr. Kindlund said, "There was a notable increase in proliferation."

Soon, the attackers were using the vulnerability for so-called watering hole attacks, in which hackers infect a popular website with malware, then wait for victims to click to the site and infect their computers.

Mr. Kindlund said FireEye believed the two attack groups were nation-state sponsored. While he said the company did not yet have conclusive evidence, based on the groups' previous campaigns it was believed they were operating from China.

The vulnerability affected all versions of Microsoft's Internet Explorer web browser. Only those who had configured their browsers to run in enhanced protection mode were protected.

The situation took on added urgency because Microsoft stopped supporting its Windows XP operating system last month, meaning that any devices running Windows XP would be permanently vulnerable to attack.

Typically in its regular upgrade cycle, Microsoft waits to issue security fixes on the first Tuesday of every month — what system administrators call "Patch Tuesday." But given the gravity of the hole, Microsoft raced to issue a patch Thursday and decided to update Windows XP systems as well.

"The security of our products is something we take incredibly seriously," Adrienne Hall, the general manager of Microsoft's Trustworthy Computing project, said in a statement on Thursday. "When we saw the first reports about this vulnerability we decided to fix it, fix it fast, and fix it for all customers."

The timing of FireEye's discovery was fortuitous for the company, whose stock has tumbled 40 percent since a finding last month by NSS Labs, an independent research company, that FireEye's breach-detection systems underperformed similar offerings by Cisco Systems, Trend Micro and General Dynamics. NSS Labs actually issued a grade of "caution" to customers using FireEye's web and email malware protection systems.

The findings set off an unusual back-and-forth online between NSS Labs and FireEye. Responding to the report in a blog post, Manish Gupta, FireEye's senior vice president for products, said NSS Labs' test environment did not match the real threat landscape. NSS Labs' researchers responded in a blog post of their own — titled "Don't Shoot the Messenger." 

FireEye's stock, which had been trading at $65 before the NSS Labs report was released, has been tumbling and closed near $40 Thursday.

Mr. Kindlund, of FireEye, said this week's discovery of the security hole in Internet Explorer was proof that isolated tests did not reflect real-world threats. A separate finding by NSS Labs released in March had found that Internet Explorer was more secure than Google's Chrome and Apple's Safari browser.

"Look, we're focused on protecting and defending against real-world attacks," Mr. Kindlund said. "It's hard to model and test for that in any controlled way. Clearly, there's a disconnect between what's happening in the real world and what's currently being tested."



Stuart Don Levy

Thursday, April 24, 2014

3 American Doctors Killed by Guard at Afghan Hospital - NYTimes.com

3 American Doctors Killed by Guard at Afghan Hospital - NYTimes.com

3 American Doctors Killed by Guard at Afghan Hospital

Photo
Afghan security officials outside of Cure International Hospital in Kabul on Thursday. Credit S. Sabawoon/European Pressphoto Agency

KABUL, Afghanistan — Three American doctors were killed Thursday morning when an Afghan police officer turned his gun on them at a private hospital in Kabul, an attack that underscored the growing frustration with the Western presence here a decade after the war began.

The shooting took place at Cure International Hospital, a 100-bed facility that specializes in the treatment of disabled children and women's health issues, including fistula and premature birth. One of the physicians who worked at the facility was hosting three visiting doctors from the United States, said Gen. Mohammad Zahir, the Kabul police chief. The three had taken a picture in front of the hospital's sign before entering, witnesses said.

A government official said the police officer, Ainuddin, a two-year veteran of the department, had only recently been assigned to the unit guarding the hospital. Witnesses and officials said he fired on the doctors when they entered a security vestibule at the entrance of the building, killing three of the male doctors and wounding a female doctor. The attacker then entered the interior courtyard, where he continued to fire at foreigners.

Other officers were reported to have wounded the gunman before he could kill anyone else, although one security official said the guard had shot himself.

The Taliban did not claim responsibility for the attack, raising the possibility that the gunman was part of a growing class of Afghans disenchanted with the presence of Americans in the country. Bitterness has spilled into the narrative about the American presence here, as fears about the military withdrawal and its attendant uncertainty grow.

Less than three weeks ago, an award-winning photographer for The Associated Press, Anja Niedringhaus, was killed by a police officer at a checkpoint in eastern Afghanistan. Her colleague, the reporter Kathy Gannon, was also wounded in the attack. A month before that, a Swedish journalist was shot and killed in a heavily guarded area of Kabul.

The attacks are reminiscent of the so-called green-on-blue shootings by Afghan soldiers against their allies in the coalition. Two years ago, a sharp increase in the number of insider attacks threatened to derail the training mission that is central to the American military withdrawal scheduled for this year.

But even as fewer coalition soldiers leave their heavily fortified bases, and as new strategies are put in place to safeguard against insider attacks, such episodes have all but subsided. Foreign workers in Afghanistan have been singled out for attacks, although the number of civilians targeted is still small compared with military deaths.

Beyond the recent killing of journalists, a concerted effort by the Taliban to target locations that are popular with expatriates was evident in the run-up to the presidential elections in early April. An assault in January on the Taverna Restaurant in central Kabul left 21 dead, most of them foreigners, and fatal shootings at the luxury Serena Hotel last month left nine dead. Such events have put the thousands of foreigners living in Kabul on high alert.

The unpredictable nature of the violence has prompted some embassies to redouble their security efforts, and has led those living outside secure areas to limit their exposure.

Continue reading the main story

The scene of the attack Thursday presented a somewhat troubling case study in the waning patience of most Afghans for the continued Western presence here. Amid the two-dozen police officers clustered around the entrance to the hospital, a group of men whose female relatives were patients at the hospital gathered.

Some expressed fears that the facility might shut down after the killings, leaving Afghans with the prospect of having to turn to poorly funded public hospitals.

Others spoke of the attacks with little sympathy. "The foreigners have been here too long," said a man who gave his name as Fawad, whose female relative was in the hospital undergoing surgery. "People are tired of them."

A car pulled up a short while later, and the driver was told by the police to leave the area. When the police explained that an officer had shot and killed three foreigners, the driver replied, "Good for him that he killed the infidels."

Several Afghans at the hospital responded with expressions of shame in their countryman, and worried about the consequences of the attack.

"This is so bad," said Ahmad Shekib, a Kabul resident whose aunt had just delivered a baby. "We will lose this source of health services. These were good people who had left their families and had come all the way from U.S. to help Afghans. It is so shameful."

Others added that the attack would harm the very people the foreigners were trying to help.

"We will lose this source of proper health service," said Mohammed Safar, from Ghazni Province, who idled by the entrance. "Who bears the brunt? Poor Afghans. Rich Afghans can afford taking their patients to Dubai and Europe. Where will we go?"

Cure International started in 1998 in Kenya and now operates hospitals and programs in 29 countries. The organization focuses on health issues for which treatment is more difficult to obtain in the developing world, including club foot, cleft palate and untreated burns, according to its website.

The organization began operating in Afghanistan in 2005, setting up a hospital in West Kabul that now treats around 37,000 patients a year. On Thursday, the gunman himself was admitted as a patient after the attack.



Stuart Don Levy

Monday, April 21, 2014

Robert Maranto and Michael Crouch— Ignoring an Inequality Culprit: Single-Parent Families - WSJ.com

Robert Maranto and Michael Crouch— Ignoring an Inequality Culprit: Single-Parent Families - WSJ.com

Ignoring an Inequality Culprit: Single-Parent Families

Suppose a scientific conference on cancer prevention never addressed smoking, on the grounds that in a free society you can't change private behavior, and anyway, maybe the statistical relationships between smoking and cancer are really caused by some other third variable. Wouldn't some suspect that the scientists who raised these claims were driven by something—ideology, tobacco money—other than science?

Yet in the current discussions about increased inequality, few researchers, fewer reporters, and no one in the executive branch of government directly addresses what seems to be the strongest statistical correlate of inequality in the United States: the rise of single-parent families during the past half century.

The two-parent family has declined rapidly in recent decades. In 1960, more than 76% of African-Americans and nearly 97% of whites were born to married couples. Today the percentage is 30% for blacks and 70% for whites. The out-of-wedlock birthrate for Hispanics surpassed 50% in 2006. This trend, coupled with high divorce rates, means that roughly 25% of American children now live in single-parent homes, twice the percentage in Europe (12%). Roughly a third of American children live apart from their fathers.

Does it matter? Yes, it does. From economist Susan Mayer's 1997 book "What Money Can't Buy" to Charles Murray's "Coming Apart" in 2012, clear-eyed studies of the modern family affirm the conventional wisdom that two parents work better than one.

"Americans have always thought that growing up with only one parent is bad for children," Ms. Mayer wrote. "The rapid spread of single-parent families over the past generation does not seem to have altered this consensus much."

In an essay for the Institute for Family Studies last December, called "Even for Rich Kids, Marriage Matters," University of Virginia sociologist W. Bradford Wilcox reported that children in high-income households who experienced family breakups don't fare as well emotionally, psychologically, educationally or, in the end, economically as their two-parent-family peers.

Abuse, behavioral problems and psychological issues of all kinds, such as developmental behavior problems or concentration issues, are less common for children of married couples than for cohabiting or single parents, according to a 2003 Centers for Disease Control study of children's health. The causal pathways are about as clear as those from smoking to cancer.

More than 20% of children in single-parent families live in poverty long-term, compared with 2% of those raised in two-parent families, according to education-policy analyst Mitch Pearlstein's 2011 book "From Family Collapse to America's Decline." The poverty rate would be 25% lower if today's family structure resembled that of 1970, according to the 2009 report "Creating an Opportunity Society" from Brookings Institution analysts Ron Haskins and Isabel Sawhill. A 2006 article in the journal Demography by Penn State sociologist Molly Martin estimates that 41% of the economic inequality created between 1976-2000 was the result of changed family structure.

Earlier this year, a team of researchers led by Harvard economist Raj Chetty reported that communities with a high percentage of single-parent families are less likely to experience upward mobility. The researchers' report—"Where Is the Land of Opportunity?"—received considerable media attention. Yet mainstream news outlets tended to ignore the study's message about family structure, focusing instead on variables with far less statistical impact, such as residential segregation.

In the past four years, our two academic professional organizations—the American Political Science Association and the American Educational Research Association—have each dedicated annual meetings to inequality, with numerous papers and speeches denouncing free markets, the decline of unions, and "neoliberalism" generally as exacerbating economic inequality. Yet our searches of the groups' conference websites fail to turn up a single paper or panel addressing the effects of family change on inequality.

Why isn't this matter at the center of policy discussions? There are at least three reasons. First, much of politics is less about what you are for than who you are against, as Jonathan Haidt, a New York University psychology professor, noted in his popular 2012 book "The Righteous Mind." And intellectual and cultural elites lean to the left. So, quite simply, very few professors or journalists, and fewer still who want foundation grants, want to be seen as siding with social conservatives, even if the evidence leads that way.

Second, family breakup has hit minority communities the hardest. So even bringing up the issue risks being charged with racism, a potential career-killer. The experience of the late Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan is a cautionary tale: Moynihan, who had a doctorate in sociology, served in the Lyndon B. Johnson administration as an assistant secretary of labor and in 1965 published a paper titled "The Negro Family: The Case for National Action," warning about the long-term risk that single-parent households pose for black communities. He was attacked bitterly, and his academic reputation was tarnished for decades.

Finally, there is no quick fix. Welfare reform beginning in the mid-1990s offered only modest marriage incentives and has been insufficient to change entrenched cultural practices. The change must come from long-term societal transformation on this subject, led by political, educational and entertainment elites, similar to the decades-long movements against racism, sexism—and smoking.

But the first step is to acknowledge the problem.

Mr. Maranto is a professor in the Department of Education Reform at the University of Arkansas, where Mr. Crouch is a researcher.



Stuart Don Levy

Sunday, April 20, 2014

In Cold War Echo, Obama Strategy Writes Off Putin - NYTimes.com

In Cold War Echo, Obama Strategy Writes Off Putin - NYTimes.com
A sea change in international relations.  We need to change the way that we think of the Russian leader without jeperdising important ways that we cooperate.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/20/world/europe/in-cold-war-echo-obama-strategy-writes-off-putin.html?hp&_r=0

In Cold War Echo, Obama Strategy Writes Off Putin

WASHINGTON — Even as the crisis in Ukraine continues to defy easy resolution, President Obama and his national security team are looking beyond the immediate conflict to forge a new long-term approach to Russia that applies an updated version of the Cold War strategy of containment.

Just as the United States resolved in the aftermath of World War II to counter the Soviet Union and its global ambitions, Mr. Obama is focused on isolating President Vladimir V. Putin's Russia by cutting off its economic and political ties to the outside world, limiting its expansionist ambitions in its own neighborhood and effectively making it a pariah state.

Mr. Obama has concluded that even if there is a resolution to the current standoff over Crimea and eastern Ukraine, he will never have a constructive relationship with Mr. Putin, aides said. As a result, Mr. Obama will spend his final two and a half years in office trying to minimize the disruption Mr. Putin can cause, preserve whatever marginal cooperation can be saved and otherwise ignore the master of the Kremlin in favor of other foreign policy areas where progress remains possible.

Photo

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia met Saturday with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. Credit Alexei Druzhinin/RIA Novosti Kremlin, via Associated Press

"That is the strategy we ought to be pursuing," said Ivo H. Daalder, formerly Mr. Obama's ambassador to NATO and now president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. "If you just stand there, be confident and raise the cost gradually and increasingly to Russia, that doesn't solve your Crimea problem and it probably doesn't solve your eastern Ukraine problem. But it may solve your Russia problem."

The manifestation of this thinking can be seen in Mr. Obama's pending choice for the next ambassador to Moscow. While not officially final, the White House is preparing to nominate John F. Tefft, a career diplomat who previously served as ambassador to Ukraine, Georgia and Lithuania.

When the search began months ago, administration officials were leery of sending Mr. Tefft because of concern that his experience in former Soviet republics that have flouted Moscow's influence would irritate Russia. Now, officials said, there is no reluctance to offend the Kremlin.

In effect, Mr. Obama is retrofitting for a new age the approach to Moscow that was first set out by the diplomat George F. Kennan in 1947 and that dominated American strategy through the fall of the Soviet Union. The administration's priority is to hold together an international consensus against Russia, including even China, its longtime supporter on the United Nations Security Council.

While Mr. Obama's long-term approach takes shape, though, a quiet debate has roiled his administration over how far to go in the short term. So far, economic advisers and White House aides urging a measured approach have won out, prevailing upon a cautious president to take one incremental step at a time out of fear of getting too far ahead of skittish Europeans and risking damage to still-fragile economies on both sides of the Atlantic.

The White House has prepared another list of Russian figures and institutions to sanction in the next few days if Moscow does not follow through on an agreement sealed in Geneva on Thursday to defuse the crisis, as Obama aides anticipate. But the president will not extend the punitive measures to whole sectors of the Russian economy, as some administration officials prefer, absent a dramatic escalation.

Continue reading the main story

The more hawkish faction in the State and Defense Departments has grown increasingly frustrated, privately worrying that Mr. Obama has come across as weak and unintentionally sent the message that he has written off Crimea after Russia's annexation. They have pressed for faster and more expansive sanctions, only to wait while memos sit in the White House without action. Mr. Obama has not even imposed sanctions on a list of Russian human rights violators waiting for approval since last winter.

"They're playing us," Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee, the ranking Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee, said of the Russians, expressing a sentiment that is also shared by some inside the Obama administration. "We continue to watch what they're doing and try to respond to that," he said on CNN on Friday. "But it seems that in doing so, we create a policy that's always a day late and a dollar short."

The prevailing view in the West Wing, though, is that while Mr. Putin seems for now to be enjoying the glow of success, he will eventually discover how much economic harm he has brought on his country. Mr. Obama's aides noted the fall of the Russian stock market and the ruble, capital flight from the country and the increasing reluctance of foreign investors to expand dealings in Russia.

They argued that while American and European sanctions have not yet targeted wide parts of the Russian economy, they have sent a message to international businesses, and that just the threat of broader measures has produced a chilling effect. If the Russian economy suffers over the long term, senior American officials said, then Mr. Putin's implicit compact with the Russian public promising growth for political control could be sundered.

That may not happen quickly, however, and in the meantime, Mr. Obama seems intent on not letting Russia dominate his presidency. While Mr. Obama spends a lot of time on the Ukraine crisis, it does not seem to absorb him. Speaking privately with visitors, he is more likely to bring up topics like health care and the Republicans in Congress than Mr. Putin. Ukraine, he tells people, is not a major concern for most Americans, who are focused on the economy and other issues closer to home.

Since returning from a trip to Europe last month, Mr. Obama has concentrated his public schedule around issues like job training and the minimum wage. Even after his diplomatic team reached the Geneva agreement to de-escalate the crisis last week, Mr. Obama headed to the White House briefing room not to talk about that but to hail new enrollment numbers he said validated his health care program.

Reporters asked about Ukraine anyway, as he knew they would, and he expressed skepticism about the prospects of the Geneva accord that his secretary of state, John Kerry, had just brokered. But when a reporter turned the subject back to health care, Mr. Obama happily exclaimed, "Yeah, let's talk about that."

That represents a remarkable turnaround from the start of Mr. Obama's presidency, when he nursed dreams of forging a new partnership with Russia. Now the question is how much of the relationship can be saved. Mr. Obama helped Russia gain admission to the World Trade Organization; now he is working to limit its access to external financial markets.

But the two sides have not completely cut off ties. American troops and equipment are still traveling through Russian territory en route to and from Afghanistan. Astronauts from the two countries are currently in orbit together at the International Space Station, supplied by Russian rockets. A joint program decommissioning old Russian weapons systems has not been curtailed.

Continue reading the main story

Nuclear inspections under the New Start arms control treaty Mr. Obama signed in his first term continue. The Air Force still relies on rockets with Russian-made engines to launch military satellites into space, although it is reviewing that. The United States has not moved to try to push Russia out of the W.T.O. And the Obama administration is still working with Russia on disarming Syria's chemical weapons and negotiating a deal with Iran to curtail its nuclear program.

"You can't isolate everything from a general worsening of the relationship and the rhetoric," said Graham Allison, director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University and an adviser to multiple administrations on Russia and defense policy. "But there's still very high priority business that we have to try to do with Russia."

Still, the relationship cannot return to normal either, even if the Ukraine situation is settled soon, specialists said. "There's really been a sea change not only here but in much of Europe about Russia," said Robert Nurick, a Russia expert at the Atlantic Council. "A lot of the old assumptions about what we were doing and where we were going and what was possible are gone, and will stay that way as long as Putin's there."

Mr. Nurick said discussion had already begun inside the administration about where and under what conditions the United States might engage with Russia in the future. "But I can't imagine this administration expending a lot of political capital on this relationship except to manage it so that the other things they care about a lot more than Russia are not injured too badly," he said.



Stuart Don Levy